The course addresses risk and decision analysis for geotechnical and structural engineering systems based on statistics and reliability modeling. Students will learn to make probabilistic predictions of the behavior of geotechnical and structural engineering systems by characterizing and quantifying the uncertainties associated with the material properties and external forces, and propagating them through the relevant prediction equations.
This is a first course in decision analysis that extends the domain of decision making problems from those considered in traditional statistical hypothesis testing scenarios. The course consists of three major sections: 1) modeling decisions, where the emphasis is on structuring decision problems using techniques such as influence diagrams and decision trees; 2) modeling uncertainty, which covers subjective probability assessment, the use of classical probability models, Bayesian analysis, and value of information; and 3) modeling preferences, which introduces the concepts of risk preference, expected utility, and multi-attribute value and utility models. This course is dual-listed with IE 412.